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How Trump’s Tariffs Rocked Markets — And What Crypto Did Next

How Trump’s Tariffs Rocked Markets — And What Crypto Did Next

Apr 23, 2025 | Crypto, Precious metals, RWA

Since February 2025, President Trump’s escalating tariff announcements have sent shockwaves through global markets. From initial levies on Canada and Mexico to sweeping tariffs affecting 57 countries, each policy shift has triggered significant volatility across equities, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.

Below is a timeline of key tariff-related events, market reactions, and the BTC price swings they triggered.

📆 Timeline of Trump Tariff Announcements vs Market Reactions

Here’s a snapshot of the most volatile days:

📅 Date🗞️ Announcement📉 S&P 500₿ Bitcoin🪙 Altcoins🏆Gold
Feb 125% tariffs on Canada/Mexico; 10% on ChinaN/A-3.0%-12.0% (XRP, SOL, ETH hardest hit)~$2,540
Mar 1225% global steel/aluminum tariffs-1.5%-1.5%-3.0%~$2,780
Apr 2Emergency tariffs: 10–54% on 57 countries-3.4%-10.0%-25.0% (market cap halved)~$3,167
Apr 3–4Enforcement begins, then recession panic. Aditional tariffs on Israel and Vietnam-4.88% → -5.97%-5.0%-10% to -15% more (Coinbase down 7.7%)~$3,004
Apr 9Tariff pause; 25% auto tariffs (China at 125%) sparks rally+9.52%+8.0%+10.0% (XRP, SOL rebound strongest)~$3,245
Apr 10Market digests pause; no new announcement-2.5%-4%-5%~$3,180
Apr 14Exemptions for electronics (Apple, etc.)+0.79%+1.5%+3.0% (tech-linked alts benefit e.g., Apple shares)~$3,212
Apr 22Gold hits record high amid market uncertainty+0.5%+2.0%+4.0%$3,500 (intraday)

Note: Gold and silver prices are approximate and based on available data.

📊 Visualizing the Chaos

The chart below shows the parallel trajectory of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin through the turbulence of Trump’s trade moves:

🔶 Bitcoin declined across most announcements until the April 9 pause triggered a sharp relief rally.

🔷 The S&P 500 saw sharper daily percentage drops than Bitcoin, highlighting the broad risk-off sentiment.

🟡 Gold held its ground — and then rallied hard — as safe-haven demand returned.

🪙 Altcoins exhibited the most volatility, with sharp losses and rebound attempts tied to macro sentiment.

What This Shows Us

🧯 Crypto ≠ Hedge (At Least Not Short-Term)

Bitcoin mirrored equities more often than not, suggesting that macro fears — like sudden tariff escalations — continue to pull crypto into broader market turbulence.

🎭 Policy Uncertainty Wrecks Confidence

Markets don’t just fear bad news — they fear unpredictability. The Trump strategy of announcing, delaying, then doubling down created persistent anxiety, which hit all asset classes hard.

🕊️ Pause = Relief

The April 9 policy pause was met with immediate risk-on appetite. Stocks, Bitcoin, and altcoins all posted strong gains — highlighting just how starved markets were for clarity.

🧪 Asset Highlights

  • Altcoins & XRP: Highly sensitive to macro narratives. Saw deep losses on Feb 1 and Apr 2, but also led in rebounds post-pause.
  • SOL: Frequently among the hardest-hit but also one of the fastest to recover, especially in bullish pockets like Apr 9–14.
  • Apple & Tech Stocks: Benefited from exemptions. Their recovery lifted tech-linked altcoins and improved sentiment across risk assets.
  • Ondo Finance: Outperformed many majors during volatility. The RWA narrative continued to resonate as TradFi institutions looked for yield-bearing digital instruments.
  • Coinbase (COIN): Declined sharply on Apr 3 as fears around U.S. policy spillover weighed heavily on publicly traded crypto firms.

🔭 Where Do We Look From Here?

1. Macro-Driven Markets Are the New Normal

Gone are the days when crypto danced to its own beat. The correlation between equities and crypto is tighter than ever — especially in the face of unpredictable geopolitical and trade policies. When Trump speaks, crypto bleeds, just like stocks.

2. BTC is Resilient, Alts Are Risk-On Bets

Holding alts continues to reflect high-volatility exposure to global risk sentiment. Bitcoin may bounce back after 10% drops, but alts often need coordinated bull runs or macro relief to fully recover.

3. Narrative Is Everything

Projects like Ondo and tokenized real-world asset (RWA) platforms showed signs of strength even during the turbulence. Safe yield and TradFi-linked infrastructure might emerge as the next defensive play in crypto.

🧩 Lessons Learned

  • Announcements punch first — policy plans are often priced in before they take effect.
  • Delays still sting — the Feb 1 to Mar 4 window saw markets fall before the actual implementation.
  • Watch for pivots — April 9’s sudden pause reversed days of damage.
  • Diversification matters — BTC declined 3–10%; alts dropped 10–30%. Risk tolerance is more important than ever.

🧭 Navigating the Tariff Pause

The current 90-day pause on escalations gives markets some breathing room. But if this cycle has shown anything, it’s that traders today need to be macro-aware, responsive, and measured. Crypto is no longer isolated — it’s macro-attached.

🌅 Is a Bitcoin Decoupling on the Horizon?

While Bitcoin has largely traded like a risk asset during recent macro shocks, its long-term fundamentals — such as fixed supply, decentralized settlement, and increasing adoption by sovereigns and institutions — may lay the groundwork for future decoupling. As traditional markets face growing debt burdens and monetary interventions, Bitcoin’s digital scarcity could start to resonate more like gold than tech — especially if the demand for neutral, self-custodied assets rises in politically volatile environments.

🏆 Gold: The Traditional Safe Haven

Gold’s climb from ~$2,540 to $3,500 during this window reinforces its role as a traditional hedge. But it’s worth noting that the paper-to-physical gold ratio (sometimes exceeding 100:1) raises questions about how accurately markets price real demand — especially in a crisis. Structural fragility could still impact how gold performs in future market stress.

🥈 Silver: The Underestimated Play

While less discussed, silver posted meaningful gains in tandem with gold. With gold peaking, one key metric to watch closely is the gold-to-silver ratio — currently near historically high levels. When this ratio stretches (e.g., 80:1 or higher), it has often marked strong buying windows for silver. Historically, silver tends to play catch-up in late-stage commodity rallies, offering outsized upside when capital flows rotate from gold into undervalued metals.

Here’s a historical chart of the Gold-to-Silver ratio from 2020 to 2025, highlighting how we’re again near the 80–100 range — a zone that has often preceded strong silver rallies.

Mantra’s Downfall: What It Tells Us About the Future of RWA

Mantra’s Downfall: What It Tells Us About the Future of RWA

Apr 17, 2025 | Uncategorized

Last time we talked about Real World Assets (RWA), we explored three different approaches to bringing off-chain assets onto the blockchain. One of the rising stars at the time was Mantra, a Layer 1 blockchain based on the Cosmos SDK and designed specifically to support the growing RWA narrative.

Fast forward to last week — despite announcing promising partnerships and development milestones, $OM, the native token of Mantra, dropped as much as 90% in a matter of days. What went wrong? And more importantly, what does it tell us about the current state — and future — of RWA in crypto?

What Went Wrong with Mantra?

Mantra entered the spotlight with all the right ingredients: a slick narrative around real-world assets, low float/high FDV tokenomics, and apparent traction in the Middle East. But like many new Layer 1s, it faced the challenge of maintaining momentum ahead of large token unlocks — a period that often brings volatility and uncertainty.

It appears that efforts to support the token’s price — whether through coordinated market activity or organic trading — may have fallen short. With thin liquidity and a small circulating supply, once confidence wavered, the market had no cushion. The price collapsed, and there was little natural demand to absorb the sell pressure.

Investors largely overlooked that Mantra was essentially a fork of Cosmos with some custom RWA-focused modules. Many chased the narrative, ignoring fundamentals and better-positioned competitors. The result was a hard reset for both the project and its supporters.

Do We Really Need a Layer 1 for RWA?

Here’s the question more people should have asked earlier: Do RWAs need their own blockchain at all? Most users would rather have their tokenized assets — whether it’s real estate or T-bills — on Ethereum or a major L2, not on a niche chain that might not survive the next market cycle.

Why?

  • Security: Ethereum has the most battle-tested smart contracts and validator network.
  • Ecosystem support: Integrations with wallets, exchanges, and DeFi protocols already exist.
  • Longevity: Institutional players want to know their assets will outlive a startup chain.

Launching a custom L1 adds technical debt, fragmentation, and regulatory risk — without necessarily adding user value. Unless there’s a truly novel consensus or compliance mechanism, building on Ethereum (or even leveraging modular frameworks like Celestia or Rollups) is a smarter path.

Tokenomics & Transparency: Lessons Learned

One of the biggest takeaways from Mantra is the importance of token design and transparency. Many crypto projects continue to launch with:

  • Low circulating supply
  • High insider allocations
  • Poorly communicated unlocks
  • Artificial price support via market makers

These setups are unsustainable. They create the illusion of value — until tokens unlock or sentiment shifts. Then, they unravel fast. Going forward, both builders and investors need to demand clear unlock schedules, publicly auditable wallets, and honest disclosures about how much supply is under team or investor control.

What Real Innovation in RWA Looks Like

The real challenges in RWA aren’t about spinning up a new chain — they’re about solving the messy real-world problems like:

  • Regulatory compliance (KYC/AML)
  • Reliable asset custody and legal wrappers
  • On-chain identity and registries
  • Permissioned smart contracts for institutional access

The projects that succeed in this space will be the ones building compliant, composable infrastructure — not just hype-driven chains. Expect more focus on oracles, metadata standards, and identity layers rather than yet another Layer 1.

Will RWA Really Generate Revenue?

Let’s do some simple math on whether RWAs are actually profitable — and for whom.

💰 Hypothetical Revenue Breakdown:

  • $1B in tokenized assets
  • 0.5% origination fee → $5M one-time
  • 0.25% annual management fee → $2.5M/year
  • $100M traded monthly at 0.05% protocol fee → $600K/year

That’s around $8.1M in Year 1 revenue — from just $1B in assets.

Scale that to $10B, and now you’re looking at a legitimate eight-figure revenue stream.

🤔 But Here’s the Catch:

  • Most RWA protocols don’t own the custody or origination.
  • If you’re just a blockchain, how much of this fee flow do you actually capture?
  • You need users, developers, and legal infrastructure — not just tokenomics.

Real revenue in RWA exists — but only if you own key parts of the stack.

Who’s Building the Next Phase of RWA?

Here are some of the most promising players leading the way — along with the tech they’re using and the risks they face.

📌 Pinlink

  • What It Does: Asset identity registry — think ENS for real-world things.
  • Tech: Built on Ethereum. Uses IPFS and NFTs to link physical assets to legal metadata.
  • Risks: Still early. Legal enforceability of claims may be untested in court. Competing projects may enter.

💵 Ondo Finance

  • What It Does: Tokenized securities, starting with U.S. Treasuries (OUSG).
  • Tech: Ethereum-based. Leverages real custodians (e.g., BlackRock) and whitelisted smart contracts.
  • Risks: Highly dependent on U.S. regulatory clarity. Centralized custody is a risk.

After some quiet months, Ondo is gaining attention again thanks to its institutional-grade tokenized T-bills (OUSG) and expansion into APAC markets. With Coinbase and BlackRock nods, they’re positioning as a credible bridge for TradFi.

⚙️ Chex

  • What It Does: Tokenizing commodities and logistics assets (e.g. oil, metals, grain).
  • Tech: Multi-chain — using Ethereum and Polygon, with Chainlink for data oracles and RFID integration.
  • Risks: Logistics infrastructure is messy. Data integrity is critical. Institutional adoption may lag.

🏗️ Centrifuge

  • What It Does: RWA lending with real-world collateral (e.g. invoices, real estate).
  • Tech: Built as a Polkadot parachain with Ethereum bridging. Uses NFT-based asset tokenization.
  • Risks: Less visibility outside Polkadot. Loan performance depends on off-chain enforcement.

🪙 Maple Finance

  • What It Does: On-chain undercollateralized lending for institutions, now expanding into RWA credit lines.
  • Tech: Ethereum and Solana-based. Uses smart contracts and pool delegates for underwriting.
  • Risks: Credit risk. Some past defaults. Regulatory friction with unsecured lending.

🧭 Where Do We Go From Here?

The Mantra saga should be a turning point. The RWA narrative is real — it’s not just hype — but it needs infrastructure, not speculation. What comes next?

  • Shift from L1s to middleware and application layers
  • Focus on compliant infrastructure, not forks
  • RWA liquidity pools, registries, and oracles > empty chains
  • Real revenue, not token inflation

Mantra may have fallen, but the future of RWA is still very much alive — and maybe this reset is exactly what the space needed.