October 2026 - Tecsurf

Everything You Should Know About Quantum Risks to Crypto — and What to Do Today

Oct 24, 2026 | Crypto, Wallet

How quantum computing could affect Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, why your recovery phrase isn’t the main concern, and the practical steps you can take to protect your wallet.

Updated: October 23, 2026

The quantum threat: should crypto holders be worried?

Imagine someone accessing your cryptocurrency wallet without stealing your password, compromising your hardware wallet, or discovering your recovery phrase.

Instead, they use a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to calculate your private key from information already visible on the blockchain.

That is the scenario cryptographers and blockchain developers are preparing for.

In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor discovered an algorithm that could allow powerful quantum computers to break mathematical problems underlying much of today’s public-key cryptography.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all use cryptographic signature systems that could eventually be vulnerable to this attack.

However, as of October 2026, no publicly demonstrated quantum computer is capable of breaking the cryptography protecting ordinary cryptocurrency wallets at the scale required for real-world theft.

The threat is real, but the transition to quantum-resistant security is already underway.

The question for cryptocurrency holders is therefore straightforward: what can we do today to reduce our exposure without creating unnecessary risks?

1. How could a quantum computer steal cryptocurrency?

Cryptocurrency wallets rely on three important elements:

Private key: Your secret cryptographic key, which allows you to authorize transactions.
Public key: A mathematically related key that allows others to verify your digital signatures.
Wallet address: The identifier used to receive cryptocurrency. Depending on the blockchain, it may be the public key itself or a hash derived from it.

Traditional computers can easily calculate a public key from a private key, but reversing the calculation is computationally impractical.

Shor’s algorithm changes this mathematical assumption.

A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could potentially calculate a private key from an exposed elliptic-curve public key.

Once the private key is recovered, an attacker could create valid signatures and authorize transactions without the owner’s permission.

Importantly, the attacker would not need the original 12- or 24-word recovery phrase.

This makes the exposure of public keys one of the central concerns in cryptocurrency quantum security.

2. Are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana equally exposed?

No. One of the most important differences is whether a blockchain reveals the public key before the owner sends a transaction.

Blockchain	Public key visible before spending?
Bitcoin — native SegWit P2WPKH	Generally no
Bitcoin — Taproot P2TR	Yes
Ethereum — standard account	Generally no
Solana — standard wallet	Yes, when the address is known

Bitcoin: your address type matters

Bitcoin supports several address formats.

Conventional native SegWit P2WPKH addresses use a hash of the public key. If these addresses have only received funds and their public keys have not been revealed elsewhere, their public keys remain hidden on-chain.

However, once the funds are spent, the corresponding public keys are revealed.

Taproot addresses work differently because their outputs directly contain elliptic-curve public keys.

Consequently, Taproot offers less protection against a future attacker capable of recovering private keys from exposed public keys.

This does not make Taproot insecure against conventional computers, but it creates a different quantum-exposure profile.

Ethereum: transaction history matters

An ordinary Ethereum wallet address is derived from a hash of the public key.

This means a fresh Ethereum account can receive ETH or tokens without revealing its public key through ordinary on-chain transactions.

However, once that account sends a transaction, the ECDSA signature allows its public key to be recovered.

That makes an account that has already signed transactions more directly exposed to a future quantum attack than an account whose public key has never been disclosed.

Solana: public keys are visible by design

Solana uses Ed25519 cryptography for ordinary wallet accounts.

A conventional Solana wallet address is the public key itself.

Consequently, creating a new wallet doesn’t provide the same public-key-hiding advantage available with certain Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses.

Solana will need quantum-resistant authorization methods to address that risk.

3. Could quantum computers guess your 24-word recovery phrase?

This is a separate issue from recovering an individual private key.

A properly generated 24-word BIP-39 recovery phrase contains 256 bits of randomness.

That corresponds to approximately 2²⁵⁶ possible phrases.

A quantum computer using Grover’s algorithm could theoretically accelerate exhaustive search, reducing the idealized search complexity toward 2¹²⁸ quantum iterations.

That is still an extraordinarily demanding task.

The mathematical rules used to generate recovery phrases are publicly known, but that does not make correctly generated randomness predictable.

There is some mathematical structure in the words, including checksum information. For instance, if someone already knows the first 23 words in the correct order, only eight possible final words satisfy the checksum.

But this does not allow attackers to predict a completely unknown, securely generated phrase.

The more immediate concerns are poor randomness, compromised wallet software, phishing, and insecure backups.

The crucial distinction is that a future quantum attacker might compromise an exposed account’s private key without ever obtaining the 24-word master recovery phrase.

4. What are blockchain developers doing?

The main solution is post-quantum cryptography.

These newer signature systems rely on mathematical problems that are not known to be efficiently solvable by quantum computers.

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology has already standardized several post-quantum cryptographic algorithms.

However, blockchains need to integrate these algorithms into their transaction validation, wallet systems, and broader infrastructure.

Ethereum

Ethereum is researching quantum-resistant transaction authentication, validator signatures, and cryptographic commitments.

Account abstraction may eventually allow compatible wallets to change their authorization methods without requiring users to transfer every asset into a new account.

Ethereum’s published post-quantum development plans include a target around 2029 for quantum-resistant Layer 1 infrastructure. This remains a development objective rather than a guaranteed deployment date.

Solana

Solana’s engineering ecosystem has investigated Falcon and other quantum-resistant signature technologies.

Compact signatures are especially important for Solana because the network is optimized for high-throughput transaction processing.

The challenge is not only supporting new signatures but also migrating existing wallets, token authorities, staking arrangements, and smart-contract-controlled assets.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin developers are investigating proposals such as BIP-360, which aims to reduce certain forms of public-key exposure.

However, fully quantum-resistant Bitcoin spending will require additional cryptographic mechanisms and community agreement on protocol changes.

One particularly difficult problem involves older coins whose owners may no longer be able to authorize a migration.

5. What should cryptocurrency holders do today?

The most useful actions involve improving existing wallet security and reducing unnecessary exposure while waiting for trusted post-quantum upgrades.

Action 1 — Use a reputable hardware wallet and protect your recovery phrase

For meaningful long-term cryptocurrency holdings, a hardware wallet is an important security tool.

Unlike ordinary software wallets, hardware wallets are designed to keep private keys isolated from internet-connected computers.

Transactions are signed inside the device, reducing the risk that malware on your computer can extract your private keys.

One well-known option is Ledger, which offers hardware wallets designed to protect private keys using dedicated security hardware.

Interested in securing your cryptocurrency with a hardware wallet?

Explore Ledger Hardware Wallets

Affiliate disclosure: This article contains a referral link. I may earn a commission if you purchase through it, at no additional cost to you.

Other reputable hardware-wallet manufacturers are also available. The most important considerations are security, supported cryptocurrencies, recovery procedures, and compatibility with your intended use.

Remember that a hardware wallet is not automatically quantum-resistant. It protects your private keys against many conventional attack methods, but signed transactions can still reveal public keys that could theoretically become vulnerable to future quantum computers.

Never share your recovery phrase, and never enter it into an unsolicited website, app, or support form.

Action 2 — Separate active accounts from long-term holding accounts

Here is a useful distinction that many cryptocurrency holders may not realize.

If you’re using a hardware wallet and have already sent transactions from one Ethereum account, you can generally create another account under the same recovery phrase with a different, previously unexposed public key.

Most hardware wallets use hierarchical deterministic key derivation.

This means a single recovery phrase can generate multiple accounts with different private and public keys.

For example, imagine using one Ledger device with one securely generated recovery phrase:

Account 1 — Active trading and DeFi

Used for token swaps, staking, lending, approvals, and regular transactions.

Its public key has already been exposed through signed transactions.

Account 2 — Long-term holding

A fresh Ethereum account created from the same recovery phrase.

It receives ETH and tokens but does not send transactions or sign messages that reveal its public key.

Its public key can remain hidden.

A future quantum attacker recovering Account 1’s private key from its public key would not automatically recover Account 2’s private key or the master recovery phrase.

Standard hardened account derivation helps isolate account branches. Certain non-hardened derivation arrangements have additional risks if extended public keys and child private keys are exposed, so wallet implementation matters.

You generally don’t need a new physical hardware wallet or a new recovery phrase simply to create another Ethereum account with its own unexposed public key.

Nevertheless, accounts sharing the same recovery phrase still share a master secret. Anyone obtaining that phrase may be able to compromise all accounts derived from it.

Important: smart contract interactions count too

Not spending cryptocurrency does not necessarily mean you have avoided exposing your public key.

On Ethereum, many smart contract interactions require signed transactions even when you aren’t directly transferring ETH to another person.

For example:

Approving a token for a decentralized exchange
Swapping tokens on Uniswap
Depositing assets into a lending protocol
Staking through a smart contract
Minting NFTs
Claiming protocol rewards through a signed transaction

These actions can reveal the account’s public key because they require ordinary Ethereum transaction signatures.

Even off-chain signatures, such as authentication messages or token permits, can allow someone with access to the signed message and signature to recover the public key.

By contrast, simply connecting a wallet to a decentralized application or viewing balances and contract data does not normally reveal the public key.

If your goal is to maintain a receiving-only Ethereum account with minimal quantum exposure, avoid using it to sign transactions or messages that disclose its public key.

This doesn’t make the account quantum-proof. It simply reduces exposure until a reliable quantum-resistant authentication mechanism becomes available.

Action 3 — Understand your Bitcoin address type

For long-term Bitcoin storage, determine whether your wallet uses native SegWit P2WPKH, Taproot, or another output type.

Fresh P2WPKH addresses can conceal their public keys until spending.

Avoid address reuse after spending, and use your wallet’s fresh receiving addresses when practical.

Do not assume that every address beginning with bc1q is P2WPKH, since some other SegWit address types share this prefix.

And do not rush into transferring existing Bitcoin solely because you have Taproot outputs. Any transaction introduces its own costs and risks.

Action 4 — Understand the Solana limitation

Creating a new ordinary Solana wallet under the same recovery phrase does not conceal its public key.

For standard Solana accounts, the wallet address itself is the public key.

The longer-term solution is the implementation of quantum-resistant authorization methods.

Avoid experimental products claiming to make Solana quantum-safe without credible independent security assessments.

Action 5 — Keep software and firmware updated

Use official wallet applications and verified firmware.

As the major blockchain networks develop post-quantum functionality, hardware-wallet manufacturers and other infrastructure providers will need to support it.

Keeping devices supported and securely updated will be important for a future migration.

Action 6 — Don’t rush into unnecessary wallet migrations

Moving assets can introduce transaction errors, smart-contract risks, tax considerations, and phishing exposure.

A wallet whose public key is visible is not currently evidence that a quantum attacker can steal its assets.

Separating accounts can be a reasonable long-term security practice, but complex or hurried transfers may create greater immediate risks than they eliminate.

If you decide to reorganize your holdings, verify addresses on the hardware device and make sure your backup and recovery procedures are reliable.

Action 7 — Prepare for future post-quantum upgrades

Keep a private inventory of the blockchains, wallets, hardware devices, and custody services you use.

Identify which holdings are controlled by ordinary wallet keys and which depend on multisig arrangements, staking systems, or smart contracts.

Do not include private keys or recovery phrases in that inventory.

Follow official protocol and wallet-provider announcements regarding post-quantum support.

The objective is to be prepared to migrate when trustworthy upgrades become available.

6. Your crypto security checklist

Use a reputable wallet with securely generated keys.
Store recovery phrases securely and offline.
Consider a hardware wallet for significant long-term holdings.
Separate active Ethereum accounts from receiving-only accounts where useful.
Remember that smart contract transactions can expose Ethereum public keys.
Check your Bitcoin output types and avoid unnecessary address reuse.
Understand that ordinary Solana addresses expose public keys.
Keep wallet software and hardware firmware updated.
Avoid unverified quantum-security products or migration services.
Follow official post-quantum upgrade developments.

7. How easy will migration be?

Migration will depend on each blockchain’s architecture.

Ethereum’s account-abstraction approach could eventually allow compatible accounts to change their authentication mechanism without moving every asset.

Solana will need to introduce quantum-resistant wallet authorization and address how existing accounts and authorities can transition.

Bitcoin will need new spending mechanisms and community agreement on the treatment of older vulnerable outputs.

The most difficult situations may involve dormant accounts, lost private keys, unsupported hardware devices, and smart contracts that cannot easily be upgraded.

The transition will also involve exchanges, custodians, validators, wallet providers, and users.

A successful migration requires broad adoption before sufficiently powerful quantum attacks become practical.

Conclusion: prepare, don’t panic

Quantum computing represents a genuine long-term challenge to cryptocurrency security, but not every wallet has the same exposure.

Bitcoin’s conventional hashed-public-key addresses can keep public keys hidden until spending. Ethereum’s ordinary accounts have a similar property before their first public-key-revealing signature. Solana’s standard addresses expose public keys by design.

A securely generated 24-word recovery phrase remains extraordinarily resistant to known quantum brute-force methods. The greater concern is the future ability to derive individual private keys from exposed elliptic-curve public keys.

For hardware-wallet owners, creating a separate Ethereum account from the same recovery phrase can reduce public-key exposure without requiring a completely new wallet setup.

However, even routine smart contract interactions can reveal a public key if they involve signed transactions.

Today, the sensible response is to secure recovery phrases, use trustworthy wallet implementations, minimize unnecessary key exposure, and stay informed about official post-quantum upgrades.

Protect against today’s attacks, reduce tomorrow’s exposure, and be ready to migrate when proven quantum-resistant solutions are available.

Beyond ChatGPT: Where the Next AI Gold Rush Could Happen

Oct 24, 2026 | AI

Gene editing, quantum computers, energy, and even copper. The next wave of AI could transform industries we rarely associate with artificial intelligence.

When we think about AI, names like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google immediately come to mind.

But what if some of the biggest beneficiaries of AI over the next three years aren’t traditional technology companies?

What if they’re developing new medicines, building electrical infrastructure, or mining the materials needed to power the digital world?

The next chapter of AI may be less about chatbots and more about transforming the physical world.

Here are six areas worth watching.

1. Biotechnology: Could AI Help Rewrite Human Biology?

Imagine developing medicines faster, designing proteins that don’t exist in nature, or treating genetic diseases by correcting faulty DNA.

That’s the promise of combining AI with biotechnology.

AI can help scientists analyze enormous genetic datasets, predict protein structures, and design more precise gene-editing tools such as CRISPR.

The potential is extraordinary, particularly in drug discovery, personalized medicine, and genetic therapies.

Of course, discovering a promising treatment is different from proving that it works safely in humans. Clinical trials remain expensive and time-consuming.

But the pace of scientific discovery could accelerate significantly.

Companies to watch: Thermo Fisher Scientific and Danaher provide essential research tools, while Roche and AstraZeneca are exploring AI-driven drug discovery.

The interesting opportunity may not be limited to the company that discovers the next breakthrough medicine. It could also extend to those supplying the technologies behind thousands of experiments.

2. Quantum Computing: Can AI Accelerate the Next Computing Revolution?

Quantum computers could eventually help solve complex problems in chemistry, materials science, and physics.

But building them is incredibly difficult.

Their biggest obstacles include maintaining stable quantum states, correcting errors, and scaling the technology.

AI is already helping researchers improve error correction, optimize quantum hardware, and develop better control systems.

Companies such as IBM and Google are investing heavily in this field.

Will quantum computing become mainstream by 2029? Unlikely.

But significant advances could bring us closer to practical applications, particularly in scientific research.

And there’s an intriguing possibility: AI could help build better quantum computers, which could eventually accelerate scientific discoveries themselves.

3. Semiconductors: Beyond the Memory Bottleneck

Everyone knows AI needs powerful chips.

And the shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), essential for feeding data to AI processors, is already a well-established industry challenge.

But the more interesting question is: Where will the next bottleneck appear?

As AI processors become more powerful, manufacturers must connect more computing components, move data faster, and manage increasing power consumption.

Several technologies could become even more important:

Advanced packaging: Connecting multiple processors and memory components efficiently.
Optical interconnects: Using light to move information between computing systems.
Power delivery: Supplying enormous amounts of electricity to increasingly dense computing hardware.
Advanced cooling: Preventing powerful processors from overheating.

Companies such as ASML, TSMC, Broadcom, and Applied Materials operate across critical parts of this ecosystem.

The future semiconductor race may not simply be about building faster chips. It could increasingly depend on how efficiently we connect, power, and cool them.

Beyond traditional data centers, decentralized AI networks like Bittensor are exploring alternative ways to distribute computing power.

4. Electricity: The Unavoidable AI Infrastructure Boom

AI may live in the cloud, but the cloud runs on electricity.

And lots of it.

The International Energy Agency projects that global data-center electricity demand could nearly double between 2025 and 2030.

Building enough computing capacity requires far more than additional power plants.

It also means expanding electrical grids, installing transformers, managing power distribution, and developing sophisticated cooling systems.

This puts traditional industrial companies in an unexpectedly exciting position.

Companies to watch: Eaton, Schneider Electric, GE Vernova, and Vertiv.

Nuclear energy, natural gas, renewables, and battery storage could all play roles in meeting growing demand.

The surprise?

Some of the most important AI infrastructure companies may manufacture equipment that has existed for decades.

The AI revolution might be powered as much by transformers as by transistors.

5. Commodities: Could Copper Become the New AI Metal?

AI’s physical infrastructure creates demand for raw materials.

And not all metals will benefit equally.

Copper stands out because it’s essential for electrical grids, transformers, cables, and industrial equipment.

Silver is another interesting candidate, thanks to its exceptional electrical conductivity and its use in electronics and solar technologies.

Platinum could benefit from specialized applications in data storage and hydrogen technologies, although its relationship with AI is less direct.

Gold remains important in certain electronic components, but its price is driven primarily by investment and monetary demand.

And palladium is still much more closely tied to the automotive industry than to AI.

For the companies supplying these materials, AI could become an additional source of demand alongside electrification and industrial development.

But there’s a catch: growing demand doesn’t automatically mean rising prices. Supply, substitution, and economic cycles still matter.

6. The Wild Card: AI-Discovered Materials

This could be one of the most fascinating developments of all.

Imagine AI helping scientists discover:

Batteries that charge faster and last longer.
New materials that make computer chips more efficient.
Better catalysts for industrial processes.
Improved superconducting materials.
Cooling technologies that dramatically reduce energy consumption.

AI allows researchers to explore enormous combinations of chemical structures and materials, helping identify promising candidates before conducting expensive experiments.

A single breakthrough could have consequences across multiple industries.

Better batteries could transform energy storage. New materials could improve semiconductors. More efficient catalysts could change how chemicals are produced.

This field may not attract as much attention as generative AI, but its long-term potential is enormous.

The Bigger Picture: The Winners May Be Hiding in Plain Sight

There’s a common thread connecting these industries.

Scientific breakthroughs rarely happen in isolation.

A gene-editing company needs research instruments. A chip designer needs manufacturing equipment. A data center needs electricity, cooling, and raw materials.

This creates an interesting possibility:

Some of the biggest beneficiaries of AI may be the companies enabling innovation, rather than the companies making the headlines.

Think ASML in semiconductor equipment, Thermo Fisher in biotechnology, or Eaton and Schneider Electric in electrical infrastructure.

They don’t need to invent the next revolutionary chatbot to participate in AI’s expansion.

Of course, technological importance doesn’t guarantee commercial success. Some breakthroughs will take years, and others may never become economically viable.

But one thing seems increasingly clear.

The first wave of AI transformed how we create and process information.

The next wave could transform how we discover medicines, design materials, build computers, and produce energy.

And perhaps the next big AI winner won’t be a software company at all.

It might be a biotechnology laboratory, an electrical equipment manufacturer—or even a copper mine.

The real AI revolution is only beginning.

While AI is transforming physical industries, another revolution is unfolding around privacy, data ownership, and decentralized AI systems

This article explores emerging technology and industry trends, not investment recommendations. Future scientific and commercial outcomes remain uncertain.